A tale of two clusters: knowledge and emergence

Cluster emergence is an important topic but weakly conceptualized in the literature. Focusing on the interaction of the local knowledge pool and firm growth, the paper develops a comprehensive framework to understand cluster emergence. In the framework, the cluster formation process starts with the collision of local and external knowledge which generates an innovation and stimulates the creation of local pioneering firms in a new field. To support the growth of follow-up entrants in the new industry, the local knowledge pool needs to be expanded and deepened through local knowledge sharing and external knowledge inflows. The enlarged local knowledge pool enables local firms to grow and explore other fields further. To promote cluster emergence, public policies need to facilitate the interaction of the local knowledge pool and firm growth. The paper illustrates the interactive framework with two aluminum extrusion clusters in China that emerged in different ways over different time periods.     

Effects of scale economies and production seasonality on optimal hub locations: the case of regional fresh produce aggregation

Interest in supporting local and regional food systems is rising and food hubs have attracted considerable attention among Federal, State, and local policymakers. This study explores the problem of endogenous hub location in fresh produce value chains in the Northeastern United States. To overcome limitations in the literature, we incorporate the effects of economies of scale and production seasonality into our models. Three experimental models are designed to examine the effects of alternatively applying yearly, quarterly, and monthly data on model solutions. We explicitly assess how interactions of scale economies and seasonality influence the structure and spatial attributes of an optimal regional produce aggregation hub system. The three models generate marketed different solutions and in many respects they lead to different conclusions about developing local/regional supply chains. The monthly model allows for production seasonality and actual hub operation cycle frequency and thus leads to more efficient hub solution with rich policy implications.     

The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans

This empirical study analyzes the relationship between the sentiments in online media with regard to travel destinations and corresponding tourist arrivals. We expect the media reports on political and economic instability and turmoil to enhance tourist arrival nowcasts and forecasts, as they can probably complement them with information on disruptions and shocks. Therefore, we believe this research will help to build better models for tourism demand nowcasting and forecasting. We use the sentiment in the German-speaking online media because the German-speaking region is the most populated in Europe and has the largest group of travelers visiting destinations in and around Europe.

An artificial neural network is used to analyze the mood of the media. The software classifies news items regarding potential tourist destinations with either positive or negative labels. The number of positive and negative news items is used to build sentiment indices for popular tourist destinations for Europeans.

Our results show strong correlations between the mood concerning tourist destinations and tourist arrivals in these countries. Indeed, disruptions and shocks prevalent in the news are reflected in similar ratios in both tourist arrivals and sentiment indices. These results can be used as a new explanatory variable for tourism demand modelling.     

水生态系统服务供需视角下的水网乡村 适应性规划策略——以吴江张鸭荡片区为例

苏南乡村地区一直是中国乡村建设的先行区域，特殊的纵横交错的水网结构构成了一个错综复杂的系统，呈现出其他地区不具有的复杂性和生态特殊性。随着城镇的扩张，乡村的发展建设使其水网空间的平衡发展面临极大的挑战。传统单一静态的规划方法逐渐显示出无法适应经济、社会等发展要求的缺陷。苏南乡村地区以水为核心，从水生态系统服务供需关系的视角下探究水网乡村的适应性规划策略更加适应当前的乡村现状和需求。以传统水网乡村空间形态转译为基础，建立水生态系统供需服务评估体系，在评估水生态系统服务供需能力的基础上，分析供需分异模式及供需矛盾。从构建乡村水域空间生态格局、乡村水域空间功能分区规划，以及乡村水域空间多情景预判3个方面，提出苏南水网乡村的适应性规划策略，并为水网乡村的生态实践提出新思路。     

Discouraging Rainforest Transformation: An Ex-ante Policy Impact Analysis

Despite extensive efforts made by national and international certification agencies, Indonesian smallholder farmers’ participation in palm oil certification schemes adoption remains low. A fundamental obstacle is the smallholder practice of rainforest transformation into oil palm plantation which is forbidden by the agencies. In this context, we investigate three policies that could lead to a reduction in rainforest deforestation by smallholders: price premium on certified palm oil; the provision of environmental information; contributor recognition. In order to evaluate the influence of the policies ex-ante, we conduct a social dilemma experiment involving rubber and oil palm smallholders in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The findings indicate that the price premium and provision of context-specific environmental information could reduce rainforest transformation. However, a statistically significant effect of contributor recognition was not found.     

Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in China. Using all listed Chinese companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as well as 4188 ​M&A deals from the period of 2001–2018, we show that Chinese firms are more likely to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, which contradicts the behavior of US firms. We further show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less likely than non-SOEs to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. SOEs are less likely to use only cash for their acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. These results indicate the prudence of SOEs regarding acquisitions relative to non-SOEs during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth for acquirers, and this wealth effect is more pronounced for SOEs.     

Insolvency regimes and firms' default risk under economic uncertainty and shocks

One of the arguments often advanced for implementing a stronger insolvency and bankruptcy framework is that it enhances credit discipline among firms. Using a large cross-country firm-level dataset, we empirically test whether a stronger insolvency regime reduces firms' likelihood of defaulting on their debt. In particular, we examine whether it reduces default risk during increased economic uncertainty and various external shocks. Our results confirm that a stronger insolvency regime moderates the adverse effects of economic shocks on firms' default risk. The effects are more pronounced for firms in the top half of the size distribution. We also explore channels through which improved creditor rights influence firms' default risk, including dependence on external finance, corporate leverage, and managerial ethics. Our main results are robust to an alternative measure of default risk, inclusion of currency and sovereign debt crisis episodes, and alternative estimations.     

The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy.     

Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China

Using China as the research setting, this paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical results show a U-shaped relation between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical analysis, in terms of ownership structure, firm size, corporate competitiveness and geographical location, further shows that (i) the effects for economic policy uncertainty in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises are significant, but the effect is stronger for state-owned enterprises; (ii) such significant effect is also found more strongly in small and medium-sized enterprises and highly competitive enterprises; and (iii) the effects for eastern, central and western China are all statistically significant, but the effect is strongest for eastern China.     

江苏经济高质量发展本质、态势与对策

以科技革命和产业变革为主要特征的新工业革命方兴未艾,与朱格拉周期形成叠加,与经济高质量发展形成难得的历史交汇。当前江苏站到了新工业革命与经济高质量发展融合的全新起点,开启了经济增长新周期,致力于改善经济运行质量,提高经济效益。研究表明,新工业革命与经济高质量发展呈现相互依存、相互融合、协调发展的总趋势。文章通过对江苏经济高质量发展态势分析,把握新时代江苏的新方位、新坐标,推动新旧动能转换,实现江苏经济增长由"L型"向"V型"转变,彰显经济高质量发展的"江苏作为",为其他区域经济发展提供现实观照。